How Amy Klobuchar Pulled Off the Big Surprise of the New Hampshire Primary - The New York Times

CONCORD, N.H. — Senator Amy Klobuchar knew she might have an opportunity in New Hampshire’s presidential primary.

As a fiscally moderate Democrat who opposes the “Medicare for all” and free four-year college plans of her liberal rivals, Ms. Klobuchar was in sync with the smaller-government tilt of plenty of Democrats in the state. Her emphasis on bipartisanship and pragmatism was a fit with New Hampshire’s large number of unaffiliated voters, or independents, who could participate in the Democratic primary. And she often mentioned her support for New Hampshire’s two centrist female senators, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan.

So in the aftermath of the chaotic Iowa caucuses, where her fifth-place finish might have derailed other candidates, Ms. Klobuchar placed a series of bets on New Hampshire that paid off big on Tuesday night with her surprise third-place finish in the primary. While she now has a huge challenge ahead — competing for support from Hispanic voters in Nevada and black voters in South Carolina, where she is far behind in polls — the fact that Ms. Klobuchar has a shot is because of an 11th-hour surge here that is usually the stuff of dreams for candidates.

The first bet came last week. With Ms. Klobuchar running just three percentage points behind former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the Iowa caucus results, her campaign saw room to grow with moderate voters, and decided to charter a plane to bring more than 20 staff members from the Iowa campaign to New Hampshire to mount a furious six-day sprint.

That move nearly doubled Ms. Klobuchar’s team on the ground in New Hampshire — a relatively small operation, but still a campaign that had organizational capacity to capitalize politically if the candidate had a breakthrough with voters.

Then came Friday night’s debate.

With roughly eight million people watching, Ms. Klobuchar challenged rivals like Pete Buttigieg (“a cool newcomer”) and drew contrasts with her more progressive rivals. As the marathon debate came to a close, her voice steady yet infused with the strained exhaustion of a Democrat in the Trump era, Ms. Klobuchar promised to bring compassion to the White House.

“There is a complete lack of empathy in this guy in the White House right now, and I will bring that to you,” she said onstage in Manchester. “If you have trouble stretching your paycheck to pay for that rent, I know you, and I will fight for you.”

It was a verifiable “moment,” with many political analysts calling it one of the most memorable deliveries of the debate. The campaign pounced, moving quickly on Friday night to turn the debate line into Ms. Klobuchar’s final ad in New Hampshire. In less than 24 hours, after an overnight effort to cut together the ad, her closing statement was on air in New Hampshire. Hours later, the campaign put nearly $250,000 into the cluttered New Hampshire television market for the final two days, more than any other candidate except Mr. Buttigieg.

Money began to flow in — more than $5 million in the four days after the debate. Crowds swelled well beyond expectation and venue capacity; overflow rooms became a standard good-problem-to-have for the advance staff. And volunteers, who were once an infrequent trickle at field offices around the state, turned into a veritable army of door knockers and canvassers.

“While there are still ballots left to count, we have beaten the odds every step of the way,” Ms. Klobuchar said late Tuesday, as her primary night party speech teemed with the optimism often enjoyed only by a primary winner.

Though Ms. Klobuchar spent months tailoring her presidential bid to Iowa caucusgoers — a rural Midwestern neighbor whose entire stump speech is littered with appeals to the heartland — New Hampshire may have always been more ripe for a successful rise for the Minnesota senator.

The state’s primaries are somewhat open; independents can vote, and the state allows same-day registration. Even as her fortunes remained tethered to Iowa, top Klobuchar aides began to eye New Hampshire as a potential bright spot. The endorsements of three of the state’s four largest newspapers showed establishment approval.

So Ms. Klobuchar’s campaign began diverting her to New Hampshire after nearly every debate; she did a 10-county tour in 36 hours following the November debate in Atlanta.

Though her debate performances were often well reviewed, she rarely received a national bump. But her aides pointed to hints that voters in New Hampshire were taking notice; events with 40 R.S.V.P.s ended up with roughly 100 attendees.

“We first saw her in July, and we liked her very much, and around September, we were heavily leaning that way,” said Mark Hodgdon, 60, who lives in Epsom, N.H., but drove a half-hour to attend an afternoon event at state headquarters in Manchester on Tuesday. “She cares about all the liberal issues that I care about, including campaign finance reform, but her approaches are more practical.”

In her closing message as she barnstormed the state, Ms. Klobuchar began to make more direct appeals to moderates, and even some Republicans. Her campaign began targeting towns in New Hampshire that flipped from President Barack Obama to Donald J. Trump. She sat for an interview with Bret Baier of Fox News on Monday night after speaking to a luncheon of Nashua Rotary Club members earlier in the day.

“I’ve also seen a lot of anger, from people who stayed home in 2016, or independents, or Republicans that maybe voted for the president and are now stepping back and thinking, I don’t know if I did the right thing,” Ms. Klobuchar said at the luncheon, more often a campaign trail stop for Republican candidates than Democrats. “My campaign has always been about reaching out and not shutting people out, but bringing them with me.”

Ms. Klobuchar’s distinct and deliberate appeal to the centrist spirit caught fire with some late-breaking activists.

JoAnne St. John, an influential Democratic activist in Nashua who had long backed Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, was still adrift and without a candidate heading into the final weekend.

“I went to a Buttigieg rally, and at the end of that, I said, ‘I think I’m going to support him,’” she said in an interview on Tuesday. “But I had almost begrudgingly promised some of my very proficient Democrats here in Nashua that I would go see Amy at 3 o’clock. And I did, and I’m glad I did. I saw a woman with power. I’ve seen her many times before, but she has developed her style. I just looked at that woman onstage and I thought, ‘She can do this.’” (Ms. St. John voted for Ms. Klobuchar on Tuesday, and spent most of her day encouraging others to do the same.)

On the campaign trail, Ms. Klobuchar credited signs of growing support in New Hampshire to the fact that she actually had a chance to talk to voters here, rather than be stuck in the Senate for an impeachment trial, which kept her away from Iowa for weeks.

“I am finally unleashed,” she told supporters in Salem on Sunday. “I went to four diners this morning!”

She also added local touches. On Election Day, she bought a special wrap of The New Hampshire Union Leader, highlighting its endorsement of her. At a rally in Nashua — the biggest of her candidacy — volunteers had printed out copies of the endorsements from local papers.

And in her speeches, she referred to local matters that had flown under the radar of other candidates. She mentioned the importance of “rail to southern New Hampshire” in Nashua. She gave a shout-out to Ms. Shaheen in Salem.

Though her third-place finish in New Hampshire was pitched as victory, her campaign faces an immediate uphill battle. The next two states, Nevada and South Carolina, are far more diverse, and Ms. Klobuchar has shown little strength in polling with black and Latino voters. The Super Tuesday map is not much kinder; big, expensive states like Texas and California and an array of Southern states will all be voting, and it will be tougher for Ms. Klobuchar to break through there.

But her campaign is aggressively expanding. It currently has 50 staff members on the ground in Nevada, and plans to have campaign workers in multiple Super Tuesday states by Saturday. The campaign is also starting a seven-figure ad buy in Nevada, and she has events lined up in Reno and Las Vegas.

Before she left the stage at her party on Tuesday night, Ms. Klobuchar saw a future opened by New Hampshire.

“We are so excited, we are going to take this show on the road with all of this New Hampshire good will,” Ms. Klobuchar said. “The best is yet to come.”

Shane Goldmacher and Lisa Lerer contributed reporting from Manchester, N.H.

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