Poll: Kamala Harris surges in Iowa as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders suffer after debate - USA TODAY

Susan Page USA TODAY

Published 11:17 AM EDT Jul 2, 2019

The first Democratic debate has reshaped the presidential field in Iowa, surging support for California Sen. Kamala Harris, undercutting the standing of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and raising questions about the solidity of former vice president Joe Biden's frontrunner status.

In a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll, Biden continues to lead the field, backed by 24% of those who say they are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in Iowa that open the presidential contests next year. But Harris has jumped to second place, at 16%, leapfrogging over Sanders, whose support sagged to single digits. At 9%, he finished fourth, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.

The new standings are hardly set in stone. Six of 10 say they might change their mind before the caucuses; just one in four say their minds are firmly made up. The second set of debates, scheduled for the end of the month in Detroit, could upend the horserace again.

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That said, the new survey has some sobering findings for Biden, a familiar figure in the state. His level of support didn't change from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll taken last month. But among those who watched him debate, more than four in 10 said he did worse than they had expected. And among all of those surveyed, he was the second choice of just 11%, behind three of his rivals.

Harris, in contrast, saw her support more than double compared to the June poll, to 16% from 7%. She was also chosen as the second choice of 17% — a telling measure of the potential breadth of a candidate's support. When first and second choices were combined, Biden only narrowly edged Harris, 35% to 33%.

The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, taken Friday through Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The opening back-to-back debates, featuring 10 contenders each night, were held last Wednesday and Thursday in Miami.

"To win in Iowa, you have to be able to woo the supporters of other candidates who drop out or that don't reach the 15% threshold at the caucus," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center. "The poll tells us that candidates like Harris, Warren, and (Pete) Buttigieg poll better than Biden and Sanders in this regard, and that sets the stage for a new face exceeding expectations in Iowa."

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For Sanders, who lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Hillary Clinton by less than a percentage point, the new poll also had warning flags. His support was seven points lower than in the Iowa Poll taken in June, when he had finished second to Biden. When first and second choices were combined, Sanders finished fifth — trailing Biden, Harris, and Warren by double digits, and Buttigieg by five points.

Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, scored lower support than in June. At 6%, he finished fifth, down eight points from the Iowa Poll.

A national poll taken by CNN after the debate and released Monday showed some trends similar to those in Iowa. The Democratic race across the country had tightened and Biden's lead over the field had shrunk to five points, to 22%. Support for Harris and Warren had significantly increased, to 17% and 15%, respectively. Sanders was fourth at 14%.

Both the Iowa and national polls show the power of the televised debates to introduce lesser-known candidates to voters, helping them to break out of a big field. The first debates were hosted by NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo.

Kamala Harris, who has spent only limited time campaigning in Iowa so far, surprised many viewers by how well she did. More than half of those who watched her debate said she did better than expected; less than 5% said she did worse than expected. By smaller margins, former Housing secretary Julian Castro, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Warren and Buttigieg also significantly outdid expectations.

Biden and Sanders were by far the biggest disappointments. By 5-1, 41%-8%, those who watched both nights of the debate said Biden did worse than they had expected. By 6-1, 23%-4%, those who watched both nights said Sanders did worse than expected.

The poll tried to explore Biden's strengths and weaknesses.

Among those who support Biden, 88% said they would still vote for the Democratic candidate in the general election if he wasn't the nominee. Five percent said they would vote for President Trump instead, four percent for a third party candidate. Biden has described himself as the Democratic contender who would be best able to win support from Trump voters and defeat the president's bid for a second term.
Among those who didn't choose Biden as either their first or second choice, they tended to cite a feeling that his time had passed as the main reason. In response to an open-ended question, 15% mentioned his age or said they wanted someone younger; 7% said they wanted "fresh ideas;" another 7% said it was time to "pass the torch."

Biden has sometimes struggled to explain views and actions during his 36 years as a U.S. senator from Delaware, including his handling as Judiciary Committee chairman of accusations of sexual misconduct by Anita Hill against Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas. During what may have been the most powerful moment of the debate, Harris castigated him for his past opposition to school busing. He also has drawn fire for boasting about his ability in past decades to work with segregationist senators.

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