Scientists Narrow Down When China's Falling Space Station Will Burn Up in the Atmosphere

China’s Tiangong-1 space station has been in a pretty precarious position for the past several months. The defunct station was decommissioned and deorbited as it was replaced by the newer Tiangong-2, but seeing as how China appears to have lost control of the station in late 2016, nobody knows for sure when the station is going to reenter the atmosphere, or where it will land.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

As the station continues to drop ever lower in its orbit, it becomes easier to predict its reentry date. In early March scientists knew enough to pinpoint the reentry date at somewhere near the end of the month, and now better data has given us an even more accurate estimate: March 31, plus or minus a few days.

But if predicting when Tiangong-1 will come down is hard, predicting where it will reenter is pretty much impossible. The station orbits the Earth several times per day, which means even a few minutes is enough time to bring the station over a completely different part of the planet. In effect, this means we won’t know where the station is going to come down even right before it happens.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

Fortunately there’s almost no chance that any part of the station will reach the ground and even if some parts of the station don’t completely burn up in the atmosphere, most of the Earth is ocean. There’s an extremely small chance a single piece of the satellite will ever hit land, let alone you specifically.

However, if Tiangong-1 does enter the atmosphere near you, it will produce a pretty spectacular fireball. It might be worth keeping an eye on the status of the space station over the next few weeks, on the off chance that it comes down over your head. It won’t hurt, but it should be a pretty amazing show.

Let's block ads! (Why?)