Chinese Space Station Could Crash to Earth Late Sunday or Early Monday

Quiet solar activity has once again pushed back the re-entry time for a China's falling space station, Tiangong-1, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

The doomed Tiangong-1 is now expected to fall to Earth around 7:25 p.m. EDT (2325 GMT) on Sunday (April 1), with a window that could stretch into early Monday, officials with ESA's Space Debris Office said in an update today (March 31). The U.S.-based analysis group Aerospace Corp., which is also tracking Tiangong-1, predicts Tiangong-1 will crash at 7:30 p.m. EDT (2330 GMT) Sunday, give or take 7 hours. [Track Tiangong-1! Use This Satellite Tracker]

The time for Tiangong-1's uncontrolled descent remains highly uncertain, in large part due to how quiet the sun has been. If the sun is active, its energy pushes more strongly against Earth's atmosphere. The atmosphere then balloons and becomes denser at higher altitudes. The density of the atmosphere affects the drag against Tiangong-1's orbital speed. As Tiangong-1 loses energy due to drag, it falls towards Earth.

"The space debris team at ESA have adapted their reentry forecast over the last 24 hours to take into consideration the conditions of low solar activity. New data received overnight gave further confirmation that the forecast window is moving to later on 1 April," ESA officials said in an update from 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT).

"The team now are forecasting a window centered around 23:25 UTC on 1 April (01:25 CEST 2 April), and running from the afternoon of 1 April to the early morning on 2 April. This remains highly variable."

This map by the European Space Agency shows the area in which China's Tiangong-1 space station could fall (shown in green) around April 1, 2018.
Credit: European Space Agency

Tiangong-1's predicted re-entry time has been adjusted repeatedly in recent days because the sun was quieter than predicted, ESA added. "A high-speed stream of particles from the sun, which was expected to reach Earth and influence our planet’s geomagnetic field, did, in fact, not have any effect, and calmer space weather around Earth and its atmosphere is now expected in the coming days," it stated.

China launched Tiangong-1 in 2011and remained active for five years, hosting two astronaut crews and one uncrewed docking mission. China's Manned Space Engineering Office, which oversees the country's human spaceflight missions, lost contact with the station in 2016. Since then, the 9.4-ton (8.5-metric ton) module has been falling naturally towards Earth.

In 2016, China launched a successor space station, called Tiangong-2, which remains active today.

Tiangong-1 orbits Earth with an inclination between 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south latitudes, so theoretically it could fall under any location on that path. That swath of geographical expanse includes much of the populated world, including the United States.

The chances, however, of any one location being hit are infinitesimally small, even worse than winning the Powerball jackpot. While Tiangong-1 will likely generate spectacular fireballsduring its descent, Harvard University astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell predicts only 220 to 440 lbs. (100 to 200 kg) will make it through to the surface.

Debris from space sometimes causes interesting falls on Earth's surface. The most famous example was NASA's Skylab space station in 1979, which unexpectedly threw pieces into rural Australia after the agency tried to steer it towards the ocean.

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